China made 794,781 industrial robots in nine months, already more than in all of 2025
China produced 794,781 industrial robots from January to September 2026, up 29.1% on a comparable basis and already 2.8% above the 773,074 made in all of 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Oct 19.
September growth slowed to 18.9% from 34.6% in August even though monthly output edged up 0.6% to 96,752 sets, while service robot output fell 17.8% from a year earlier.
China's factories made 794,781 industrial robots in the first nine months of 2026, 29.1% more than a year earlier on a comparable basis, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Oct 19 in its September industrial output release. That nine-month total is already 21,707 sets, or 2.8%, above the 773,074 sets China produced in the whole of 2025, a MEKAWIRE calculation from the bureau's own figures.
The headline growth rate hides a sharp turn inside the quarter. September output of 96,752 sets rose 18.9% from a year earlier, down from 34.6% in August, a slowdown of 15.7 percentage points in one month. The question for robot makers and their suppliers is whether that marks a peak in China's automation cycle or a statistical echo of last year.
Output did not fall, the comparison base rose
The bureau's monthly table shows September volume at 96,752 sets against 96,174 in August, an increase of 0.6%. September was also 9.6% above the nine-month monthly average of about 88,309 sets (794,781 divided by nine, MEKAWIRE). In other words, the weaker growth rate comes from the September 2025 base, which the bureau does not restate in this release.
- 2025 full year
- 773,074
- +28.0%
- 18,581,081
- +16.1%
- Jan to Feb 2026
- n/a
- +31.1%
- n/a
- +1.0%
- Q1 2026
- n/a
- +33.2%
- n/a
- n/a
- H1 2026
- n/a
- +28%
- n/a
- n/a
- Aug 2026
- 96,174
- +34.6%
- 1,656,132
- +5.0%
- Jan to Aug 2026
- 729,352
- +29.0%
- 13,931,863
- +12.1%
- Sep 2026
- 96,752
- +18.9%
- 1,658,178
- -17.8%
- Jan to Sep 2026
- 794,781
- +29.1%
- 15,588,372
- +7.9%
National Bureau of Statistics of China, above-scale enterprises, growth on a comparable basis as published. Jan to Feb, Q1 and H1 growth from earlier NBS releases stored by MEKAWIRE. n/a = not in MEKAWIRE data. Cumulative totals are not additive across releases (scope revisions).
As of Oct 19, 2026
The cumulative series confirms the picture. Growth for January to August stood at 29.0% and moved up to 29.1% with September included. Readers should not subtract the two cumulative totals to get a monthly number: 794,781 minus 729,352 gives 65,429, well below the reported September figure, because the bureau adjusts the enterprise scope and removes cross-region double counting between releases, as its methodology note states.
Service robots are where demand softened
The bureau's second robot line moved the other way. Service robot output was 1,658,178 sets in September, down 17.8% from a year earlier after a 5.0% rise in August, and nine-month growth slowed from 12.1% to 7.9%. Month on month, September service robot volume was flat (plus 0.1%). Nine-month service robot output of 15,588,372 sets equals 83.9% of the 2025 total of 18,581,081, so the category needs a strong fourth quarter to match last year.
- Industrial robots
- +18.9%
- +29.1%
- Service robots
- -17.8%
- +7.9%
- Metal-cutting machine tools
- +12.5%
- +10.1%
- Cars
- -5.7%
- -3.7%
- Industrial value added (all)
- +5.5%
- n/a
NBS September 2026 release, product output table. Growth on a comparable basis as published; n/a = not published for that period in this release.
As of Oct 19, 2026
Industrial robots also kept pulling away from the rest of the machinery table. Metal-cutting machine tools grew 10.1% in the nine months and cars fell 3.7%, while the bureau's overall industrial value added rose 5.5% in September. In its third-quarter economic statement the bureau named industrial robots among the products leading growth, alongside 3D printing equipment (up 62.5%) and lithium-ion batteries (up 39.5%).
How the numbers fit China's wider robot build-out
China installed 354,000 industrial robots in 2025, 59% of the world total, according to the International Federation of Robotics, as set out in MEKAWIRE's [China robotics market explainer](/news/china-robotics-market-2026-explained-354000-robot-installations-59-percent-of-world-domestic-brands-55-percent-ipo-funded-20261017). Output and installations are different measures: the bureau counts robots made by enterprises above the reporting threshold, including units shipped abroad, while the federation counts robots put into service. Both point to a domestic industry that is still growing faster than the economy around it.
The robot policy agenda is moving at the same time. Beijing issued its first six humanoid robot national standards on Sept 28, effective April 1, 2027 ([MEKAWIRE report](/news/china-first-humanoid-robot-national-standards-gb-t-48317-unitree-ubtech-xiaomi-drafted-all-six-20261019)), and the industry ministry said in July it expected full-year output of complete embodied AI machines to exceed 100,000 units. The bureau's table does not break out humanoids, so none of that target can be checked against these figures.
MEKAWIRE analysis
September's slowdown in China's industrial robot growth is a base effect, not a drop in output: volume edged up from August and nine-month production has already passed all of 2025.
The evidence is in the bureau's own table: higher monthly volume, a cumulative growth rate that rose, and a nine-month total above last year's full-year figure. The strongest counter-argument is that growth rates matter to listed robot makers and investors more than volume, and a fall from 34.6% to 18.9% will read as deceleration whatever its cause. If October growth also stays below 20%, the base-effect reading weakens.
The softer number belongs to service robots, which include cleaning and consumer machines. A 17.8% fall in September volume against the prior year is the first decline in the robot lines MEKAWIRE has tracked this year.
Bull case: industrial output above 90,000 sets a month continues into the fourth quarter and full-year growth stays near 29%, keeping pressure on prices for imported arms. Bear case: October and November growth falls toward single digits, which would suggest that capacity built in 2025 is running ahead of orders.
What to watch: the bureau's October output release in mid-November; whether service robot growth turns positive again in that release; and the full-year 2026 figures due in early 2027, against the 773,074-set 2025 benchmark.
- National Bureau of Statistics of China, Oct 19, 2026 (September industrial output and Q1 to Q3 economy releases)
- Machine tools +10.1%, cars -3.7% in nine months; industrial value added +5.5% in September
- 96,752 sets, +18.9% YoY, after +34.6% in August
- 21,707 sets (2.8%) above 2025 full-year output of 773,074 (MEKAWIRE)
- +0.6% versus August's 96,174 sets (MEKAWIRE)
- September 1,658,178 sets, -17.8% YoY; Jan to Sep +7.9%
- 794,781 industrial robots, +29.1% YoY (comparable basis)
Why it matters
China is the largest robot market and, on these figures, now makes more industrial robots in nine months than it did in all of 2025. The direction of its output growth sets the price environment for every arm maker selling into Asia, and for component suppliers whose order books follow Chinese assembly lines.
September's growth rate fell by more than half while volume rose. Investors who read only the headline rate will see deceleration; the volume series says the industry is still at a record pace.
Rival analysis
The statistics do not name companies. MEKAWIRE's China market data show domestic brands supplied 55% of installations in 2025, which means most of this output growth accrues to Chinese makers rather than to the Japanese, European and Korean firms that once dominated the market. Chinese cobot makers are also raising capital; MEKAWIRE reported on Oct 16 that FAIRINO closed Series C+ and D rounds totalling nearly RMB1 billion with Meituan among the investors.
Valuation context
No valuation change follows directly from a statistics release. For listed Chinese robot makers, the base-effect reading supports volume-led revenue but not margin expansion, since output is rising faster than domestic car production and prices are under pressure. The release gives no price or revenue data.
Supply-chain implications
Output growth of 29.1% in nine months is demand for reducers, servo motors, controllers and sensors. Machine tools grew 10.1% and lithium-ion batteries 39.5% over the same period, consistent with battery and electronics plants as the main buyers. Car output fell 3.7%, so the automotive sector is unlikely to be the driver this year.
Signals to watch
Mid-November: NBS October output; a second month below 20% growth would weaken the base-effect reading. Same release: whether service robot output returns to growth after September's 17.8% fall. Early 2027: full-year 2026 output against 773,074 sets in 2025; April 1, 2027: humanoid national standards take effect.
Analyst view
Thesis: September's slowdown is a base effect, not a drop in output. Confidence: medium. The volume data and the rising cumulative rate support it, but the bureau does not restate the September 2025 base in this release, so the size of the base effect cannot be measured directly.
Questions you should be asking
For Chinese robot makers: how much of 2026 output was exported, and at what average price compared with 2025? For component suppliers: are reducer and servo orders for the fourth quarter above third-quarter levels? For the bureau: will it publish humanoid or embodied AI output separately from the service robot line?