Japan's robot exports jump 36% in 2025 as home demand shrinks, JARA data show
Orders for industrial robots from Japan Robot Association members rose 27.8% in value to ¥925.8 billion in 2025, driven by a 36.2% rise in exports while domestic shipments fell 8.9%. The association expects all-industry orders to grow only 3.2% to ¥1.03 trillion in 2026, citing AI-linked demand from semiconductor and electronics makers.
Orders for industrial robots built by members of the Japan Robot Association (JARA) rose 27.8% in value in 2025 to ¥925.8 billion, the association said on January 23, 2026. The growth came almost entirely from abroad. Exports climbed 36.2% to ¥694.5 billion while shipments to factories in Japan fell 8.9% to ¥176.3 billion, according to JARA's quarterly member survey.
In units, members booked orders for 197,738 robots, up 19.1%, and produced 189,500, up 17.2%, with production worth ¥837.3 billion, up 21.0%. Total shipments reached 189,591 units worth ¥870.8 billion, up 23.8%. Of those, 156,516 units went abroad, up 27.0%, against 33,075 units delivered at home, down 18.6%. By MEKAWIRE calculation, exports made up 79.8% of the value shipped in 2025.
- Orders
- 197,738
- 19.1
- 9258
- 27.8
- Production
- 189,500
- 17.2
- 8373
- 21
- Total shipments
- 189,591
- 15.7
- 8708
- 23.8
- Domestic shipments
- 33,075
- -18.6
- 1763
- -8.9
- Exports
- 156,516
- 27
- 6945
- 36.2
- Exports: electronic component assembly
- 16,371
- 27.8
- 2964
- 43.2
- Exports: welding
- 34,705
- 35.8
- 864
- 34.6
- Domestic: automotive
- 9,486
- -26.5
- 512
- -15
- Domestic: electrical machinery
- 11,076
- -15.8
- 554
- -8.5
Source: JARA quarterly statistics release of January 23, 2026, member-basis survey. YoY changes as reported by JARA versus 2024. Figures disclosed, not estimated. Export share of shipment value (79.8%) in the text = 6,945 / 8,708.
As of Oct 1, 2026
The export surge gathered pace late in the year. In the October to December quarter, members took orders for 54,740 units worth ¥271.4 billion, up 29.1% in value. Exports in the quarter rose 50.2% to ¥200.8 billion on 43,753 units, while domestic shipments fell 10.2% to ¥43.7 billion and 21.4% in units to 8,068.
Where the demand came from
JARA attributed the year's result to strong growth in Asia and a recovery in Europe and the United States. Two export applications stood out. Robots in the association's electronic component assembly category brought in ¥296.4 billion of exports, up 43.2%, on 16,371 units. Welding robots, a staple of car body and metal fabrication lines, exported 34,705 units worth ¥86.4 billion, up 34.6% in value. At home the picture was the opposite. Shipments to the automotive industry fell 26.5% in units to 9,486 and 15.0% in value to ¥51.2 billion, and shipments to electrical machinery makers fell 15.8% to 11,076 units and 8.5% to ¥55.4 billion.
A trillion yen, but slower growth
The association's chair, Yasuhiko Hashimoto, president and CEO of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, gave a broader estimate in his new year address published on January 13. Counting members and non-members, he put 2025 orders at ¥998 billion, up 19.9%, and production at ¥935 billion, up 19.7%. For 2026 JARA forecasts orders of ¥1.03 trillion, up 3.2%, and production of ¥1 trillion, up 6.9%, expecting continued recovery led by semiconductor and electronics demand tied to AI investment. The member survey and the all-industry estimate use different bases, which is why their growth rates differ.
Hashimoto also pointed to the International Robot Exhibition in Tokyo at the end of 2025, which drew more than 156,000 visitors, a record, and to the government's designation of AI and advanced robotics as one of six national strategic technology fields under its economic security framework. JARA plans a new show, RoboNxt, at Intex Osaka from December 2 to 4, 2026, aimed at users in western Japan.
The global picture
The Japanese data land against a market that has shifted toward China. The International Federation of Robotics (IFR) reported on September 25, 2025 that 542,000 industrial robots were installed worldwide in 2024, of which 295,000, or 54%, went to China, where domestic suppliers took 57% of the market. Japan remained the second-largest market with 44,500 installations, down 4%, ahead of the United States at 34,200, down 9%, South Korea at 30,600, down 3%, and Germany at 26,982, down 5%. The IFR expected global installations to rise 6% to 575,000 units in 2025.
- China
- 295,000
- No data
- Japan
- 44,500
- -4
- United States
- 34,200
- -9
- South Korea
- 30,600
- -3
- Germany
- 26,982
- -5
Source: IFR World Robotics 2025 press release, September 25, 2025. China's YoY change not stated in the release. Figures disclosed, not estimated.
As of Oct 1, 2026
The mix explains why value outgrew volume in Japan's numbers. By MEKAWIRE calculation, an exported electronic component assembly robot was worth about ¥18.1 million on average in 2025, against about ¥2.49 million for an exported welding robot. A shift toward electronics customers lifts revenue faster than unit counts.
The risks are visible in the same tables. Domestic orders from carmakers, historically Japan's anchor customers, fell sharply. The 2026 forecast of 3.2% order growth is modest after a near 20% year, and it leans on a single theme, AI-driven electronics investment, that can reverse quickly. Chinese suppliers' rising share at home also narrows the room for Japanese exports in the world's largest market.
The next readings are JARA's first-quarter 2026 statistics, due in late April, and the association's final all-industry figures for 2025 later in the spring. The IFR's World Robotics 2026 report, expected in September, will show whether Japan held second place among markets in 2025.
MEKAWIRE analysis
Japan's robot industry has become an export business riding the AI electronics capital cycle, and its own trade body's 3.2% order forecast signals doubt that the cycle alone can carry 2026.
The evidence is in the split. Exports rose 36.2% in value while domestic shipments fell 8.9%, and the two strongest export lines were electronics assembly and welding. Fourth-quarter exports rose 50.2%, faster than the full year, which suggests momentum was still building when the year closed.
The strongest counter-argument is that a forecast set in early January is usually conservative. JARA's 2026 number was framed as continued recovery, and the late-year acceleration in orders gives makers a backlog that will feed production even if new orders slow.
Bull case. AI-related investment in chips, servers and electronics continues through 2026, Western automotive and general industry keep recovering, and orders beat the ¥1.03 trillion forecast. Domestic demand bottoms as labour shortages push Japanese manufacturers back into automation.
Bear case. The electronics cycle cools, China's own suppliers keep taking share at home, and domestic automotive capex stays weak. Growth in 2026 falls short of the forecast and the industry's dependence on a single end market is exposed.
- Late April 2026: JARA first-quarter statistics, especially whether export growth holds above 30% and domestic shipments stop falling.
- Spring 2026: JARA's final all-industry 2025 figures and any revision to the 2026 forecast.
- September 2026: IFR World Robotics 2026, Japan's 2025 installations and Chinese suppliers' domestic share.
- ¥694.5bn, up 36.2%
- ¥200.8bn, up 50.2%
- 197,738, up 19.1%
- ¥1.03tn, up 3.2%
- ¥176.3bn, down 8.9%
- ¥1tn, up 6.9%
- ¥925.8bn, up 27.8%
- ¥998bn, up 19.9%
Why it matters
Japan is home to several of the world's largest industrial robot makers, so JARA's statistics are one of the earliest hard readings on global factory automation demand each year. The 2025 data show that the recovery after two weak years was real but narrow. It came from exports, and within exports it came from electronics assembly and welding.
The divergence between export growth of 36.2% and a domestic decline of 8.9% also matters for policy. Tokyo has designated AI and advanced robotics a national strategic technology, yet home factories, especially automotive plants, bought fewer robots in 2025. The industry's health now depends more on foreign capital spending than on Japanese manufacturing.
Rival analysis
The main competitive pressure comes from China. The IFR reported that Chinese suppliers held 57% of their home market in 2024 in a country that took 54% of global installations. Japanese makers still export heavily into Asia, but each point of local share gained by Chinese makers such as Estun or Inovance is volume Japanese exporters no longer reach.
In Europe, ABB Robotics, which SoftBank Group has agreed to buy, and Midea-owned KUKA compete with FANUC, Yaskawa and Kawasaki for automotive and general industry orders. Korean makers such as Doosan Robotics, which concentrates on collaborative arms, compete in a narrower slice of the market than the large Japanese makers.
Valuation context
JARA's figures are not company valuations, but they set the demand backdrop for listed Japanese robot makers. A 27.8% rise in member order value with only 19.1% unit growth implies a richer mix, which supports margins if pricing holds.
The modest 3.2% order forecast for 2026 is the key input for earnings expectations. If the electronics cycle extends, makers start 2026 with backlog from a strong fourth quarter in which orders rose 29.1% in value. If not, revenue growth in 2026 will lean on that backlog and slow through the year.
Supply-chain implications
Higher robot output pulls demand through Japan's component base, including precision reducers, servo motors and controllers, much of it made by domestic suppliers such as Harmonic Drive Systems and Nabtesco. Production value rose 21.0% to ¥837.3 billion among members in 2025.
The export mix also shows where robots end up. Electronic component assembly robots, worth about ¥18.1 million each on average by MEKAWIRE calculation, serve electronics and semiconductor supply chains in Asia. Welding robots, worth about ¥2.49 million each, go into car body and metal fabrication lines, where the Western recovery JARA cited was visible.
Signals to watch
The first test is JARA's first-quarter 2026 release in late April. A domestic shipment number that stops falling would suggest home capex is turning; continued export growth above 30% would suggest the electronics cycle is intact.
Second, watch the final all-industry 2025 figures and any revision of the ¥1.03 trillion forecast in the spring. Third, the IFR's World Robotics 2026 in September will show whether Japan kept second place among markets and how far Chinese suppliers' home share moved.
Analyst view
Thesis: Japanese robot makers are well placed for 2026 revenue but exposed to a single end-market cycle, and domestic demand is not yet a cushion. Confidence: medium. The member data are complete for 2025 and published by the industry body itself, which is a strong basis. Confidence is not high because the 2026 forecast covers all industry rather than members, because JARA does not break out exports by destination country in this release, and because the AI investment driver can change quickly.
The most useful single number is fourth-quarter export growth of 50.2%. It shows acceleration into year end and argues against reading the low 2026 forecast as a signal of an imminent downturn.
Questions you should be asking
How much of the electronics assembly export growth went to China and how much to the rest of Asia, the United States and Europe? JARA does not itemise destinations in this release.
Why did domestic automotive shipments fall 26.5% in units, and is that a pause in model change investment or a structural shift in where Japanese carmakers add capacity? And will the gap between the member survey and the all-industry estimate narrow when final figures are published?